Market Report:
1998 Subscriber Forecast
January 1998
Excerpt from a report by Cahners In-Stat Group.
The information in this section is provided courtesy of Cahners In-Stat Group and reflects their view of the market environment. Intel does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials and no statement in this section are meant to imply a future projection with any certainty.
Note: all 1997 subscriber figures are based on first half performance in 1997, and are extrapolated for the balance of the year.
1997 was a pivotal year for the wireless industry, as the number of subscribers using digital technology made a significant leap into the forefront of the industry. Until then, many manufacturers clung to the belief that analog had a service life that far exceeded the industry prognosticators.
The worldwide acceptance of digital technology is reflected in the Compound Annual Growth Rate for both 800/900 MHz and 1800/1900 MHz service providers. In the year 2001, over 75% of the market will be using digital technology, and dual-mode analog/digital units will remain a unique, and expensive, appendage in the Americas. By 2002 or 2003, analog will all but disappear as Generation 3 technology begins to be rapidly deployed. While many believe that the Americas will have the lowest GEN3 growth, In-Stat believes that the Americas will be among the fastest adopters because of the current "Tower of Wireless Babel" that exists.
As stated above, digital subscribers account for over 75% of the market in 2001, up from 58% in 1997. The growth of analog will remain, for all intents, flat, with the only growth occurring in emerging nations, and the expansion of existing networks.
Even if the anticipated impact of PCS is discounted, digital technologies still maintain an almost total domination of industry growth.
Total Worldwide Subscribers by technology
Worldwide new subscriber growth is predominantly in digital cellular (800 MHz) and PCS (1900 MHz).
In the period from December 31, 1997 to December 31, 2001, CDMA grows from 2.78% of the market to 12.61%. GSM, and its derivatives, grow from 36.54% of the total to 44.25% over the same time period.
Total worldwide subscribers by geography
Much of the anticipated Japanese growth through
2001 has been recently tempered by the significant reduction in growth
that has been experienced by PHS. The Japanese Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) is still significant, however, at almost 32%. This has been
offset by excellent growth rates in Eastern Europe, Russia and ROW, resulting
in a worldwide figure of 33.58%.
Total worldwide subscriber numeric growth
The actual total worldwide subscriber numeric growth by year is shown below. It is readily apparent that the numeric market size almost triples in the five-year period beginning January 1, 1997.
