| The
information in this section is provided courtesy of
Cahners In-Stat
Group and
reflects their
view of the market environment. Intel does not warrant the accuracy
or completeness
of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained
within these materials and no
statement in this section are meant to imply a
future projection with any certainty.
Note: all 1997 subscriber figures are
based on first half performance in 1997, and are extrapolated
for the balance of the year.
U.S.
Subscribers
The U.S. subscriber base will continue to grow at an average
rate of almost 10.3 million subscribers per year. During this
period, however, In-Stat believes that churn will reach record
proportions as subscribers try to find the best combination of
cost and coverage.
The U.S. analog (AMPS) market will peak in 1999 and then
begin a fairly rapid decline in most major metropolitan areas.
In-Stat expects that the decline will parallel the geographic
deployment of digital PCS services. While some rural areas do
not currently anticipate a change to digital service, it may be
a market share requirement as PCS and digital cellular encroaches
on the rural fringe areas.
Western
European Subscribers
The decline in analog subscribers, as well as the growth
of digital service is very predictable as GSM reaches the mature
consumer stage and overall penetration rates exceed 13%, with
Scandinavian countries now reaching into the thirties. The "true"
digital CAGR is 24.5%.
While some publications have predicted single-digit subscriber
growth in Western Europe, beginning in 1998, In-Stat believes
that the CAGR over the next five years will exceed 19 percent.
This growth could potentially be even higher as DCS-1800 service
fosters lower service pricing. Additionally, since most service
in Western Europe is "calling party pays," additional
deregulation of wireline service providers will also reduce the
effective service cost.
Total
European Subscribers
The total European CAGR will exceed 21.5% for the forecast
period. Analog will have a net reduction in subscribers, but will
stabilize late in the period because of advances in Russia.
Japanese
Subscribers
While the Japanese mobile market is the fastest growing
single market in the world, it does not exceed the robust growth
being posted by the ROW. Late in 1997, there was a dramatic downturn
in the growth rate of PHS. In-Stat believes that the lack of high-speed
mobile transfers will, and has, limited the growth of PHS to a
handful of industrial centers in Japan.
The Japanese market through mid-1999 will remain relatively
stable and predictable.
Rest
Of the World Subscribers
Total ROW Subscribers
The ROW subscriber base will increase by a 55.46% CAGR.
1998 will have an absolute numeric growth approaching 30 million
subscribers. The air interfaces establishing triple-digit growth
rates are CDMA-800, TDMA-800 and CDMA-1900. PDC and PHS are not
expected to have any meaningful acceptance outside of Japan.
As noted below, GSM is the dominant technology used by
ROW. Throughout the forecast period 800 MHz GSM will have a share-of-market
in excess of 50%. Analog service has a strong second-place position,
outranking both CDMA bands.
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