 Market
Research Report: |
1998 Subscriber Forecasts
Excerpts from
a report by Cahners In-Stat
Group.
The information in this section is provided courtesy of Cahners
In-Stat Group and reflects their view of the market environment.
Intel does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information,
text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials
and no statement in this section are meant to imply a future projection
with any certainty.
Note: all 1997 subscriber
figures are based on first half performance in 1997, and are extrapolated
for the balance of the year.
Summary
1997 was a pivotal year for
the wireless industry, as the number of subscribers using digital
technology made a significant leap into the forefront of the industry.
Until then, many manufacturers clung to the belief that analog
had a service life that far exceeded the industry prognosticators.
The worldwide acceptance of digital
technology is reflected in the Compound Annual Growth Rate for
both 800/900 MHz and 1800/1900 MHz service providers. In the year
2001, over 75% of the market will be using digital technology,
and dual-mode analog/digital units will remain a unique, and expensive,
appendage in the Americas. By 2002 or 2003, analog will all but
disappear as Generation 3 technology begins to be rapidly deployed.
While many believe that the Americas will have the lowest GEN3
growth, In-Stat believes that the Americas will be among the fastest
adopters because of the current "Tower of Wireless Babel"
that exists.
As stated above, digital subscribers account
for over 75% of the market in 2001, up from 58% in 1997. The growth
of analog will remain, for all intents, flat, with the only growth
occurring in emerging nations, and the expansion of existing networks.
Even if the anticipated impact
of PCS is discounted, digital technologies still maintain an almost
total domination of industry growth.
Total
Worldwide Subscribers by technology
Worldwide new subscriber growth is predominantly
in digital cellular (800 MHz) and PCS (1900 MHz).
In the period from December 31, 1997 to December
31, 2001, CDMA grows from 2.78% of the market to 12.61%. GSM,
and its derivatives, grow from 36.54% of the total to 44.25% over
the same time period.
Total
worldwide subscribers by geography
Much of the anticipated Japanese growth through
2001 has been recently tempered by the significant reduction in
growth that has been experienced by PHS. The Japanese Compound
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is still significant, however, at almost
32%. This has been offset by excellent growth rates in Eastern
Europe, Russia and ROW, resulting in a worldwide figure of 33.58%.
Total
worldwide subscriber numeric growth
The actual total worldwide subscriber numeric
growth by year is shown below. It is readily apparent that the
numeric market size almost triples in the five-year period beginning
January 1, 1997.
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